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Jackson Pemberton's avatar

That was an excellent piece of writing and it closely reflects my own thoughts over the past several years. I keep looking for the wise statesmen in the USA and keep coming up empty. If any of the politicians realize what is at stake, they are keeping quiet, although I think Trump comes closest to seeing it. Rand Paul also seems to get it. Some are thinking that generative AI is going to solve the stagnation problem, but it will crash and burn financially soon, and only accelerate the collapse.

Our trajectory as a nation does parallel features Howe wrote about in the Fourth Turning, and also Peter Turchin's books End Times, Ages of Discord, and War and Peace and War.

The West is collapsing now. The time when we reach either total anarchy or, more likely, martial law, is unpredictable. The West could exist on life support for some years or the end could come quickly. Time will tell.

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Chris Koncz's avatar

I think the West is certainly in trouble, I don't know, if it's collapsing just yet. Also, different countries and even regions within countries could have very different outcomes. France is looking pretty good. Despite the hype, China's not looking that great. Japan and Germany seem to be already declining precipitously. Most of East Asia is heading towards extinction with fertility rates a quarter of replacement levels in most big cities. We don't know yet, what effect AI and robots will have on all of this. We can't really predict how climate change will affect things. I've seen projections, where the only habitable zones left are in extreme latitudes, mostly on Antarctica. Other projections are significantly better. We just don't know with any certainty what's going to happen in the future.

But, what we can analyse, is preparedness and the quality of leadership on all levels. That is where some countries in the West, the US and UK in particular are looking really bad.

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Oct 15
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Chris Koncz's avatar

Thanks. I like JHK, though I've only read his non-fiction books. The Long Emergency was incredibly prescient.

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Fractal Inklings's avatar

All fair points but that doesn't mean the doomerism isn't overtly biased now. Many recent Orthodox converts tend to take this apocalyptic view similar to other sects in the past and condemn entire nations as inevitably corrupt. It's not really Christian. Correct re the massive problems the US faces but I'd argue Russia is in even worse shape across the board. Only natural resource income flows prop it up. It has no church attendance, massive abortion rates, terrible demographics, etc.

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Chris Koncz's avatar

Yes. I agree.

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Gorgo's avatar

Interesting but not very useful. Climate change is real and the biggest threat we face. Genocide committed at the behest of wealthy, loudmouth Zionists is not cool. Democrats are aged and are out of touch and have no principles. But Trump is a racist and a stupid fool who has never made an honest living and ran 6 six, yes six businesses into the ground. Anyone who fails to grasp this and says even one positive thing about this deviant mental case will never bring me back to read their essays.

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Chris Koncz's avatar

I don't like Trump and probably most conservatives don't either. They probably see him as a useful tool in getting their agenda across, which worked to a degree and for a short while. Now though, it seems that US conservatives betting their whole future on Trump is going to blow up right in their faces.

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Gorgo's avatar

Their agenda will hasten the demise of the US as a world power. A pretty short run by historical standards.

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Chris Koncz's avatar

yes, I agree

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Thomas Vincze's avatar

I always look forward to what Dmitry has to say.

By the way Dmitry Orlov has a new book out. Just came out October 12th.

https://www.amazon.com/Uncontrolled-Chaos-Dmitry-Orlov/dp/B0DJZ55NWH/

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Chris Koncz's avatar

Yes, I knew his book was coming out soon, didn't realise it was already out! His first book was excellent, I will have to check this one out too.

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Fractal Inklings's avatar

I could be wrong as always but yeah, I think it's not so much the west but the entire world is in for a rough go of it. With recent stirrings in the US I'm a bit more sanguine on our chances, barring the lunatic maga fringe or leftist fringe once again controlling too much.

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Chris Koncz's avatar

Every part of the world faces huge challenges, but the US is now essentially an idiocracy. It is deliberately doing idiotic things to its economy, its global standing and its alliance structure. It won't end well.

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Fractal Inklings's avatar

Yeah that's fair. I don't think there is a grand plan. I'm still hoping there is enough competence under the surface to carry thru but haha it's fair to presume there isn't.

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Fractal Inklings's avatar

Some good points but unsure I would take anyone very seriously who lives in Russia and can't see what is likely to happen once Putin is dead, which is sooner rather than later.

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Chris Koncz's avatar

I've been following Dmitry since about the 2008 financial crisis, when he was one of the sharpest and most prescient commentators out there. He lived in the USA at the time, in fact if I recall, he is a US citizen and spent most of his time there.

During the 2008 crisis, the US financial system came very close to complete collapse, in fact it was hours away from cratering according to Hank Paulson himself, who was treasury secretary at the time. In the event, financial collapse which would have most likely lead to a cascading failure of several systems that keeps the US afloat, had been averted but at great long-term cost. What pulled the US out of that quagmire really, was the shale oil and gas revolution, but the underlying problems haven't changed and have only gotten worse since.

A few years ago Dmitry moved to Russia with his family, not least due to a religious turn, he is a very devout Orthodox Christian now and sees the USA as morally bankrupt. He is now a Russian nationalist and supports the Putin regime, yet I do think his commentary, if you remove the pro-Putin bias, is quite valuable still. If anything, the Maga crowd has pretty much turned his way, something I don't like or approve of, but it is what it is.

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Oct 14Edited
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Chris Koncz's avatar

Thanks, appreciate the feedback and share!

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Libertarian's avatar

Good point regarding Fourth Turning.

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